merican and British intelligence analysts with
direct access to the evidence are disputing claims that the
mysterious trailers found in Iraq were for making deadly germs. In
interviews over the last week, they said the mobile units were more
likely intended for other purposes and charged that the evaluation
process had been damaged by a rush to judgment.
"Everyone has wanted to find the 'smoking gun' so much that they
may have wanted to have reached this conclusion," said one
intelligence expert who has seen the trailers and, like some others,
spoke on condition that he not be identified. He added, "I am very
upset with the process."
The Bush administration has said the two trailers, which allied
forces found in Iraq in April and May, are evidence that Saddam
Hussein was hiding a program for biological warfare. In a white
paper last week, it publicly detailed its case, even while conceding
discrepancies in the evidence and a lack of hard proof.
Now, intelligence analysts stationed in the Middle East, as well
as in the United States and Britain, are disclosing serious doubts
about the administration's conclusions in what appears to be a
bitter debate within the intelligence community. Skeptics said their
initial judgments of a weapon application for the trailers had
faltered as new evidence came to light.
Bill Harlow, a spokesman for the Central Intelligence Agency,
said the dissenters "are entitled to their opinion, of course, but
we stand behind the assertions in the white paper."
In all, at least three teams of Western experts have now examined
the trailers and evidence from them. While the first two groups to
see the trailers were largely convinced that the vehicles were
intended for the purpose of making germ agents, the third group of
more senior analysts divided sharply over the function of the
trailers, with several members expressing strong skepticism, some of
the dissenters said.
In effect, early conclusions by agents on the ground that the
trailers were indeed mobile units to produce germs for weapons have
since been challenged.
"I have no great confidence that it's a fermenter," a senior
analyst with long experience in unconventional arms said of a tank
for multiplying seed germs into lethal swarms. The government's
public report, he added, "was a rushed job and looks political."
This analyst had not seen the trailers himself, but reviewed
evidence from them.
The skeptical experts said the mobile plants lacked gear for
steam sterilization, normally a prerequisite for any kind of
biological production, peaceful or otherwise. Its lack of
availability between production runs would threaten to let in germ
contaminants, resulting in failed weapons.
Second, if this shortcoming were somehow circumvented, each unit
would still produce only a relatively small amount of germ-laden
liquid, which would have to undergo further processing at some other
factory unit to make it concentrated and prepare it for use as a
weapon.
Finally, they said, the trailers have no easy way for technicians
to remove germ fluids from the processing tank.
Senior intelligence officials in Washington rebutted the
skeptics, saying, for instance, that the Iraqis might have obtained
the needed steam for sterilization from a separate supply truck.
The skeptics noted further that the mobile plants had a means of
easily extracting gas. Iraqi scientists have said the trailers were
used to produce hydrogen for weather balloons. While the white paper
dismisses that as a cover story, some analysts see the Iraqi
explanation as potentially credible.
A senior administration official conceded that "some analysts
give the hydrogen claim more credence." But he asserted that the
majority still linked the Iraqi trailers to germ weapons.
The depth of dissent is hard to gauge. Even if it turns out to be
a minority view, which seems likely, the skepticism is significant
given the image of consensus that Washington has projected and the
political reliance the administration has come to place on the
mobile units. At the recent summit meeting with President Vladimir
V. Putin of Russia, President Bush cited the trailers as evidence of
illegal Iraqi arms.